Obama

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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Wed May 12, 2010 12:49 pm

I'm not economist, but I have worked in finance and have more insight than a lot of so called financial planners, etc.

The whole downhill roll and giving him 8 years just does not cut it for me.

The main reason, things got worse when Obama took over.
If Bush were so bad, things would have hit bottom while he were in office, not a year later.

A President can either affect the situation or not. Not only affect it when things are going down and they are a Republican.
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Re: Obama

Postby Scenario Thinker » Wed May 12, 2010 12:56 pm

Financial planners are not necessarily economists.

I'm not saying to give him 8 years, I'm saying take the measurements then. I bet things get better before then, though.

You're still missing the momentum thing I mentioned. They would have tanked had Bush stayed in there another 4 years, and God forbid what else would have happened.
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Re: Obama

Postby merk » Wed May 12, 2010 1:07 pm

jcjm wrote:The main reason, things got worse when Obama took over.
If Bush were so bad, things would have hit bottom while he were in office, not a year later.

I dont think this is true - you cant make the economy turn around overnight. Do you have any economy experts who have said what you just said?
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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Thu May 13, 2010 11:52 am

If you look at data, a stock market turn around usually takes 6 months and jobs gradually increase within the next 6 months.

The stock market hit its high before the bank problem in October of 2009. So we are well beyond the general turn around of 6 to 12 months.

Its already been over a year and a half and people are still debating if we have hit the bottom of both the stock market and the employment market or if we are in a double dip recession.
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Re: Obama

Postby merk » Thu May 13, 2010 5:26 pm

Most of what i have been hearing on the radio has been saying the economy has turned around and is picking up. So that does seem to generally fall within the time frame you are talking about. As for unemployment - they also said it tends to lag behind the general recovery. Again - just going by what i've heard from people who are supposed to be the experts in that field. I haven't really heard a lot of people disagree with that - or rather people who are also considered experts.

I realize this isn't a apples to apples comparison - but the great depression took many years to recover from. So i think if this takes more then a 6-12 month window, it shouldn't be too surprising.

Again, i'd be more interested in knowing what you think he should have done that he didn't do, or what he did do that you think is wrong.
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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Fri May 14, 2010 10:45 am

You are right in saying this is not the run of the mill recession and that is my point.

Almost all recessions except the great depression were over in a year with the recession turning around in 6 months and jobs returning in the next 6 months.

We are at a year and a half for the bank bail out and about 2 years since the dow hit its high, and that recovery you are talking about is called a jobless recovery and leads the same talking heads to ask, "is this going to be a w and not a v" shaped recovery, where we have a double dip before actually getting back to previous levels?

I don't think Obama has really concentrated on this. So, what could he do? Spend some time on jobs instead of spending the entire first year pushing healthcare reform that is useless and doesn't really take effect for 4 years which just happens to be after the next election.

He did a bad job with healthcare and pushed a bad bill through just to say he did it, meanwhile doing little if nothing about jobs, forclosures, closing GITMO, getting out of Irac and Afganistan, or making the country more secure.

What should he have done? Deal with all the issues, instead of acting like he was still campaigning and going on speaking tours to promote the crap he was selling as healthcare reform.
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Re: Obama

Postby merk » Fri May 14, 2010 11:02 am

I agree with you in part, but i think you are also making it much simpler then it is.

The health care bill being less then a stellar piece of legislation does not fall entirely on him. If there had been less political bickering going on in congress, we would have gotten something better. Plus, part of the health care bill goes into effect now, not 4 years from now.

As for it being a W shaped recovery instead of a V shaped recovery - i haven't heard any talk about that, although i wouldn't be surprised if some experts thought that might be whats going to happen.

I haven't heard anything lately about gitmo, which maybe means you are right. I'm not sure what they are saying the current time frame is on that, but i agree, that should start closing that down. As for iraq/afghan - we cant leave until the job is done. It seems at least with iraq that we can start leaving. Afghan though - think we still have more work to do there. And i dont think that's obama's fault - we ignored afghan while focusing on iraq. Now we have to fix that mistake. Unless you want to argue we should just pull out of both places completely and let whatever happens, happen.
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Re: Obama

Postby Scenario Thinker » Fri May 14, 2010 2:58 pm

The last recover was "jobless", also. Here's a couple articles that are interesting in explaining why this is happening (and probably nothing Obama can do about it, really. At least not directly and not right away).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-a-Job- ... 1.html?x=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-New-Rul ... 5.html?x=0
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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Fri May 28, 2010 1:08 pm

Its been another 2 weeks and still haven't seen any change for the better on any of his platform issues, mentioned before.

On the changes for the worse, the Gulf is starting to be called THE DEAD SEA.

Not only has he allowed this thing to continue, but he won't put things on the fast track to let out of work Louisiana fishermen to skim oil and set up sand barriers. Has to do an environmental study first. Duh, the oils on the beach, whats to study? Whether it comes to shore to the left or right.

Before you ask, what could he do, I'll tell you.

1)use the advice of the former President of Shell Oil and surround the platform with supertankers that suck up the oil and throw the water back (done in the Persian Gulf 10 years ago)
2)surround that with the barriers they are using on the shore.
3)build the sand barriers and use the portable barriers to keep things off the shore
4)use local fishing boats to skim the shore and the area around the platform


All of this has been proposed by the Governor of Louisana, the president of the parish, former oil executives, etc. But the big O is leaving it in the hands of BP, who created the mess and has done little to stop it.

Yet the liberals are still trying to say its not his fault. In what world can a President go his entire term using the excuse, I inherited it.

He inherited missels from the cold war too, but that doesn't mean he can blame Eisenhower for anything related to them.

Change, is just another word to the big O, now that he has been elected.

OH, AND WHERE ARE THE ENVIRONMENTALISTS? HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH OF THEM ON THE NEWS.

They were blasting Bush all the time. Now when a major oil spill happens on a liberals watch, they run for the hills.
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Re: Obama

Postby DJCNOR » Sat May 29, 2010 6:52 pm

Actually, of course, there has been all kinds of good news economically and regarding jobs.

The oil spill is unique. No one, not even the oil companies themselves, have experience dealing with a "spill" that occurs a mile beneath the ocean surface. The Persian Gulf spill was a surface spill, a whole different type of spill. The federal government cannot take over because the technology for dealing with oil wells that far down exists only in the hands of private companies.There is no other place to look for useful information, most unfortunately. It cannot be predicted that the methods used for surface spills will work for this. Between a mile down and when the oil reaches the surface, where it might be held back by booms or sucked up by tankers, IF any high proportion of it reaches the surface, which is looking less and less likely, it may have moved some distance in any direction.

Note that when fishermen wnet out to try to do what you suggest, they sickened themselves.

And yes there are any number of reasons for environmental studies. When you are facing an unprecidented event, there's every possibility that what you do to solve it may only make things worse. Note the aftermath of the Valdez spill. I know all this because environmentalists have indeed been all over the news.

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Re: Obama

Postby Tituba » Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:43 am

Things are turning around. People are buying houses and construction has increased. This is a VERY good sign of recovery

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100601/ap_ ... n_spending
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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:33 am

Actually, of course, there has been all kinds of good news economically and regarding jobs.


Really. The last time I checked unemployment was close to 10%, less than half a per cent off the high.



Note that when fishermen wnet out to try to do what you suggest, they sickened themselves.


That's just one of the many suggestions and it could have been avoided with an inexpensive mask.



And yes there are any number of reasons for environmental studies. When you are facing an unprecidented event, there's every possibility that what you do to solve it may only make things worse. Note the aftermath of the Valdez spill. I know all this because environmentalists have indeed been all over the news.


At this point inaction is worse than almost any action, especially skimmers and barriers.

All I've seen on the networks is a couple of lone environmentalist with 1 to 2 minute carefully edited soundbites. Far less than were on the networks when Bush was President with far less of an environmental problem. I don't know if the networks are really liberal or they just haven't let the honeymoon wear off with the big O.



Things are turning around. People are buying houses and construction has increased. This is a VERY good sign of recovery


At this points its all about jobs and the overall unemployment is about the same. Loosing less jobs or gaining new ones doesn't tell the whole story, when the overall unemployment rate is still close to a high.

People look back and say I'd pay $4.00 a gallon for gas and not care that my house and IRA lost 20%, if I had a good paying stable job.
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Re: Obama

Postby Scenario Thinker » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:54 am

From the bloggers I've seen out there, their opinion is that the media in general is fairly liberal (except Fox News, of course). I don't really watch the network (national) news except sometimes I start watching the local Chicago news after TV programs, but after about the 3rd murder, rape or corrupt politician, I turn it off and go to bed.

Here's the unemployment rates through April:
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyO ... NS14000000
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Re: Obama

Postby merk » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:54 am

I think we should stop talking about the economy, because jcjm isn't talking about the economy. He's talking about unemployment.
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Re: Obama

Postby jcjm » Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:44 am

From the bloggers I've seen out there, their opinion is that the media in general is fairly liberal (except Fox News, of course).



Many people tend to see the media as liberal, but is that true or have they just been the devils advocate, attacking the party that has been in power, to make the sensational headlines?

It seems to me that the media goes after what makes sensational headlines. That has been a liberal slant, but it seems to be turning since a liberal is in the White House.

My guess is the longer Democrats have power, the more conservative the media will get.

Who is going to watch them, if all they say is, things are great. Headlines are made when someone has a scoop on something that says things aren't great.



I think we should stop talking about the economy, because jcjm isn't talking about the economy. He's talking about unemployment.


Thanks, Merk. Right now jobs are the economy. People may have taken a hit on their house or 401K, but housing starts, GDP, etc. don't mean much to the average Joe. What does matter to them, is having a good paying job.

The biggest connection to Wall Street that people have is their job, not economic indicators, and we have already seen that you can have a jobless recovery.

So jobs and the economy are 2 different things.
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